“We are facing the highest risk of nuclear exchange with Russia since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962,” said former Undersecretary of State Thomas Countryman. A 35-year veteran of the U.S. State Department, Countryman visited campus Feb.19-20 to speak with students and faculty members as part of the School’s Ambassador Series. 

On Feb. 19, Countryman gave an evening talk in the Faculty Room on nuclear arms control and nonproliferation initiatives. He explained some of the influences that could lead to a threat of nuclear warfare, including Russia and U.S. leadership’s fascination with low-yield warheads and renewed interest on how to fight and win a limited nuclear war. 

“A nuclear war won’t be limited. President Trump refuses to accept what Presidents Reagan and Gorbachev said: 'that a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought.'"

Countryman underscored the mass destruction capability of a nuclear weapon, which has not been used in 75 years.

“There are about 14,000 nuclear weapons today. The U.S. and Russia have about 90 percent of those,” he said.

“We have fewer now than during the Cold War, but at the same time, both countries have nuclear weapons ready to deploy that could destroy hundreds of cities in either country. It's pure dumb luck that they haven't been used yet."

“Up until the current administration, we’ve had a succession of presidents who believed in reducing the risk of a nuclear arms war, with the goal of a world without nuclear weapons. What concerns me the most is the incidence of false alarms that have not gone away. These are generated by early warning systems, creating the impression we are within minutes of the nuclear attack and the president faces the decision to retaliate with nuclear weapons by whether or not to push a single button.”

A discussion of nuclear warfare hasn’t been widely embraced by the public sector because many people think it is too complex a topic, but that's changing, according to Countryman.

Countryman has held a number of posts over the course of his long career. In 2017, he retired from the Senior Foreign Service after serving simultaneously as acting undersecretary for arms control and international security, and as assistant secretary for international security and nonproliferation (ISN), a position he held since 2011. The ISN Bureau leads the United States effort to prevent the spread of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, their related materials, and their delivery systems. Currently, he serves as chairman of the board of directors of the Arms Control Association, a nonpartisan nonprofit, committed to analysis of key national security issues and to advising the executive branch, Congress, and the public on choices that promote global security and reduce the risk posed by weapons of mass destruction. 

A Presidential Meritorious Service award recipient, Countryman graduated from Washington University in St. Louis with a degree in economics and political science, and studied at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.

On Feb. 20, Countryman visited the international relations and intercultural communication classes, and met with students over breakfast and lunch. Throughout his visit, he encouraged students to consider a career in public service, specifically in the foreign service. 

Phil Pillsbury ‘53, P’89,’91, who worked in the Foreign Service for more than three decades, founded the Ambassador Series in 2009, which features classroom visits and a lecture by an ambassador. More recently, the Hon. Robert Beecroft ’58, who also has a long history in government service and served as ambassador to Bosnia from 2001-2004, has taken over the reins of the program, working with Director of International Programs David Thompson to forge a relationship with the American Academy of Diplomacy, making Hotchkiss the only secondary school with a partnership with the Academy.